Geopolitics Updates November 18, 2025: US-Saudi Reset, Nigerian Crisis & Market Tremors
In my latest analysis, I delve into the seismic shifts of the last 24 hours. We're seeing a major reset in US-Saudi relations with monumental deals on the…
In my latest analysis, I delve into the seismic shifts of the last 24 hours. We’re seeing a major reset in US-Saudi relations with monumental deals on the table, a deepening political crisis in Nigeria that’s now calling for international intervention, and Iran’s continuing nuclear chess game. These events are not happening in a vacuum; they are sending shockwaves through the global order and creating significant volatility for investors.
I’ll break down what this all means for global power dynamics and your portfolio.
A World in Flux: My Analysis of Today’s Geopolitical Tremors
As I survey the global landscape today, it feels like we’re watching multiple chess games being played simultaneously on a single, interconnected board. The moves made in one corner, from the gilded halls of Washington and Riyadh to the bustling streets of Abuja, are creating immediate and often unpredictable ripples across the entire map. The last 24 hours have been a masterclass in this dynamic interplay of power, politics, and economics.
We are not just witnessing history; we are seeing the very foundations of our global order being tested and reshaped in real-time. The threads of trade, security, and political stability are being pulled taut, and for those of us who watch these developments, it’s a moment of both profound risk and significant opportunity.
I’ve spent my career analyzing these shifts, and what strikes me about the current moment is the sheer velocity of change. The post-Cold War certainties are long gone, replaced by a multi-polar world where regional powers are asserting themselves with newfound confidence, and old alliances are being re-evaluated based on starkly pragmatic interests. Let’s break down the most critical developments I’m tracking and what they signal for the immediate future.
The Great Game 2.0: Washington and Riyadh’s High-Stakes Dance
Today, the Oval Office became the stage for one of the most significant diplomatic recalibrations of the year. The meeting between the U.S. President and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was far more than a photo opportunity; it was a public declaration of a renewed, and intensely pragmatic, strategic partnership.
This rapprochement, coming after a period of palpable strain following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, signals that shared interests—countering Iran, ensuring energy market stability, and unlocking immense economic potential—have decisively overridden past tensions.
Political Stability and Leadership Transitions
What I find most compelling is how this visit solidifies the leadership positions of both figures. For the U.S. administration, it’s a demonstration of its ability to engage with key global players to advance American interests, projecting an image of strength and deal-making prowess on the world stage.
For MBS, the welcome in Washington is the final step in his rehabilitation from ‘pariah’ to indispensable partner. It cements his role as the undisputed heir and the driving force behind Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030. The U.S. administration’s defense of the Crown Prince regarding the Khashoggi affair was a clear signal: the focus is on the future, not the past.
This renewed stability at the top of the U.S.-Saudi relationship is designed to send a powerful message to adversaries and allies alike.
Trade Relations and Strategic Investments
The sheer scale of the economic agreements being discussed is staggering and speaks to the core of this renewed alliance. We’re hearing about a Saudi pledge to invest a jaw-dropping $600 billion in the United States, targeting everything from energy and infrastructure to technology and critical minerals. This isn’t just about money; it’s about strategic alignment.
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, its grand plan to diversify away from oil, requires American technology, expertise, and investment. In return, the U.S. economy gets a massive injection of capital, aimed at strengthening domestic industries and creating jobs.
This is economic statecraft of the highest order, creating a level of interdependence that binds the two nations together beyond traditional security concerns. The talk of cross-border investments in AI data centers and other tech ventures shows a shared understanding that the future of global power will be built on a foundation of technological supremacy.
Defense Sector and Regional Tensions
Of course, the bedrock of this relationship has always been security, and the developments here are perhaps the most impactful for the region. The potential sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia is a game-changer. Until now, Israel has been the sole operator of this advanced aircraft in the Middle East, a policy designed to maintain its Qualitative Military Edge.
Selling the F-35 to Riyadh would mark a significant policy shift, signaling a deep trust in Saudi Arabia as a cornerstone of a new regional security architecture aimed squarely at Iran. This move, combined with deals for missile defense and maritime security, is about building a powerful regional bulwark. The U.S.
is effectively empowering its key Arab partner to take a more assertive role in policing the region, a strategy that aligns with a broader American desire to reduce its own direct military footprint while still shaping outcomes.
This high-stakes dance in Washington is redrawing the geopolitical map of the Middle East. It’s a clear bet on a future where a technologically advanced and militarily powerful Saudi Arabia, working in concert with the U.S., acts as the primary check on Iranian ambitions. The implications for Israel, for the ongoing conflicts in Yemen and Syria, and for the global energy markets are profound and will unfold for months and years to come.
A House Divided: Nigeria’s Democratic Crisis Spills onto the World Stage
Shifting our focus to Africa, the events unfolding in Nigeria are a stark reminder of the fragility of democratic institutions in a continent that is so crucial to global stability. As Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation, Nigeria is a bellwether. When it sneezes, the continent catches a cold.
And right now, Nigeria is in the throes of a political fever that has just broken onto the international stage in a dramatic fashion.
Political Instability and Social Unrest
The internal power struggle within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the country’s main opposition, has now escalated beyond a mere domestic squabble. The public appeal by a factional leader, Kabiru Turaki, for the U.S. President to personally intervene to “save Nigeria’s democracy” is an extraordinary development.
It’s a cry of desperation that highlights the deep-seated rot and factionalism plaguing the political elite. This isn’t just about one party’s internal chaos; it reflects a broader and deepening distrust in the country’s governing institutions. The crisis has already led to chaotic scenes, with police taking over the party’s headquarters.
This kind of instability, if left unchecked, can easily spill over into wider social unrest in a country already grappling with immense security challenges, from armed banditry in the northwest to terrorism in the northeast.
Geopolitical Implications for Africa
A politically unstable Nigeria is a significant problem for West Africa and the continent as a whole. Nigeria has traditionally been a regional hegemon, playing a key role in peacekeeping and economic integration through bodies like ECOWAS. A government and political class consumed by internal power struggles is unable to project power or provide leadership.
This creates a vacuum that can be exploited by extremist groups and other malign actors. For international partners like the U.S. and the EU, the crisis is a major headache.
They rely on a stable Nigeria as a partner in counter-terrorism, trade, and regional security. The appeal to Washington places the U.S. in an awkward position, forcing it to navigate the treacherous waters of another nation’s internal politics.
How the U.S. responds will be closely watched across Africa, setting a precedent for how it engages with democratic backsliding in other key partner nations.
Tehran’s Nuclear Gambit: A High-Stakes Game of Ambiguity
In the Middle East, the perpetual puzzle of Iran’s nuclear ambitions continues to confound and concern the international community. The latest statements and reports from the last 24 hours are a perfect illustration of Tehran’s strategy: a carefully calibrated mix of diplomatic overtures and defiant actions, designed to sow confusion and keep the world guessing.
Nuclear Diplomacy and Sanctions
On one hand, we have the Iranian Foreign Minister’s public declaration that Iran is no longer enriching uranium at any site and that all its facilities are under the watchful eye of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This is the voice of Iranian diplomacy, aimed at a European audience, trying to project an image of reasonableness and compliance. It’s an attempt to ease the pressure of sanctions and create divisions within the Western alliance.
Yet, on the other hand, we have credible reports that the IAEA itself has been unable to verify Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium for months. This is the reality that deeply worries security officials in Washington, Tel Aviv, and European capitals. This ambiguity is deliberate.
It allows Iran to claim it is adhering to its obligations while potentially continuing its nuclear progress in the shadows. The move by the U.S. and its European allies to draft a new resolution demanding answers and access is a direct response to this strategy of obfuscation.
It shows that, for now, the Western powers are not buying Tehran’s narrative.
Military Conflicts and Regional Tensions
Iran’s nuclear strategy cannot be divorced from its broader actions in the region. The seizure of another oil tanker in the vital Strait of Hormuz is a classic example of Iran’s asymmetric warfare playbook. When feeling pressured by sanctions or diplomacy, Iran often lashes out by disrupting maritime trade, a chokepoint for the global economy.
This action serves multiple purposes: it demonstrates Iran’s ability to inflict economic pain, it rallies nationalist sentiment at home, and it reminds the world of the potential costs of a military confrontation. This constant drumbeat of regional tension, from its support for proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen to its direct actions in the Gulf, is inextricably linked to the nuclear file. Each act of aggression is a bargaining chip, a way of telling the world that the price of containing Iran will be high.
The Rise of the ‘Other’: The BRICS Bloc’s Challenge to the Old Order
The shifting sands of global power are perhaps most evident in the growing momentum of the BRICS bloc. What started as an investment banking acronym has evolved into a tangible geopolitical force, a coalition of major emerging economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, now expanded to include others—that is actively seeking to build an alternative to the Western-led global order.
De-Dollarization and Financial Architecture
At the heart of the BRICS agenda is a concerted push to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar and Western financial institutions. This is not a new idea, but it has gained significant urgency in the wake of aggressive U.S.
sanctions against Russia and escalating trade frictions with China. These actions demonstrated to the bloc how the existing financial system could be weaponized. In response, we are seeing a clear strategy of de-dollarization.
BRICS central banks are steadily increasing their gold reserves, diversifying away from U.S. Treasury bonds. They are also fast-tracking the development of alternative payment systems, like BRICS Pay, to connect their domestic networks and bypass the SWIFT messaging system.
The New Development Bank, often called the ‘BRICS Bank,’ is ramping up its lending, positioning itself as a rival to the IMF and World Bank, but one without the policy conditionalities that developing nations often resent.
Strategic Resource Competition
The recent expansion of the BRICS group has dramatically increased its strategic weight, particularly in the realm of resources. With the inclusion of new members from the Middle East, the bloc now controls a significant portion of the world’s oil reserves. This creates a powerful forum that brings together major energy producers and consumers under one roof, potentially challenging the dominance of the petrodollar system.
Furthermore, the group holds sway over a vast share of the world’s rare earth minerals, which are essential for everything from smartphones to advanced weaponry. This concentration of control over critical resources gives the BRICS bloc immense leverage in the unfolding global competition for technological and military superiority.
A New Multipolar World
While the bloc is not a formal military alliance and is fraught with its own internal rivalries (most notably between India and China), its direction of travel is clear. It represents a collective effort by the Global South to demand a greater voice in global governance and to create a multipolar world that is less subject to the whims of Washington. The rise of BRICS is a structural shift that will define the geopolitical landscape for decades to come.
It signals the end of the unipolar moment and the beginning of a more complex, and potentially more volatile, international system.
Europe’s Engine Sputters: France’s Crisis and the EU’s Geopolitical Dilemma
Across the channel, the European Union is facing its own set of profound challenges, and the political turmoil in France, traditionally one of its two main engines, is causing serious concern in Brussels and Berlin. A strong and stable France is essential for a cohesive and geopolitically assertive EU. The current crisis in Paris, therefore, has implications that extend far beyond France’s borders.
Political Paralysis and Defense Spending
The ongoing political instability in France is creating legislative gridlock. This is having a direct and damaging impact on crucial policy areas, most notably defense. At a time when war has returned to the European continent and the security environment is deteriorating rapidly, France, like all EU nations, urgently needs to increase its military spending.
However, the political infighting is holding the national budget hostage, jeopardizing the planned increases in defense allocations. This not only weakens the French military’s modernization efforts but also undermines the broader European push for rearmament. Without a strong French contribution, Europe’s ambition to achieve ‘strategic autonomy’ and take greater responsibility for its own security remains just that—an ambition.
The Franco-German Axis Under Strain
The political crisis is also disrupting the Franco-German relationship, the partnership that has been the bedrock of European integration for over 70 years. A French president consumed by domestic political battles has less time and political capital to devote to the European agenda. This leaves Germany without its key partner in driving forward major EU initiatives, from defense and industrial policy to enlargement and energy security.
This paralysis at the heart of the EU weakens the entire bloc’s ability to act decisively on the world stage. At a moment when the EU faces a revanchist Russia, an assertive China, and an unpredictable United States, a divided and inward-looking Franco-German engine is a luxury Europe simply cannot afford.
The Pivotal Powers: The UAE and Egypt’s Strategic Recalibrations
In the Middle East and North Africa, we are also seeing influential nations like the United Arab Emirates and Egypt skillfully navigating the turbulent geopolitical waters, pursuing assertive foreign policies to maximize their influence and secure their interests.
The UAE: The New Middle East Hub
The UAE has become a master of geopolitical maneuvering. It continues to maintain its close security alliance with the United States while simultaneously expanding its trade and economic ties with China, its largest trading partner. This balancing act is the hallmark of its foreign policy.
The UAE is positioning itself as the ‘Singapore of the Middle East,’ a stable, technologically advanced hub for global commerce, finance, and talent, attracting investment and people from all over the world. Its pragmatic approach is evident in its decision to normalize relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords, while also re-engaging with former adversaries like Iran and Syria. This diplomatic diversification is a conscious strategy to achieve what it calls ‘strategic autonomy,’ reducing its reliance on any single power and giving it the flexibility to pursue its own interests.
Egypt: Reasserting Regional Dominance
Under President el-Sisi, Egypt is focused on rebuilding its military strength and reasserting its traditional role as a major regional power. A primary driver of this policy is the existential threat it perceives from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Cairo fears will give Ethiopia control over the flow of the Nile River, Egypt’s lifeline. In response, Egypt is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy of containment.
Diplomatically, it is building a coalition of nations in the Horn of Africa to isolate Ethiopia. Militarily, it is modernizing its armed forces and becoming one of the world’s largest arms importers. Economically, it is strengthening its strategic alliance with Greece and Cyprus, particularly in the field of natural gas, aiming to become a crucial energy hub for Europe.
This assertive posture signals Cairo’s determination to protect its vital national interests and reclaim its status as a leader in the Arab world and Africa.
Impact on Investors and Markets
As an analyst, I always stress that geopolitics and financial markets are two sides of the same coin. The events we’ve just discussed are not abstract political dramas; they have real and immediate consequences for investors, both globally and in key emerging markets like India. The primary channel through which these events impact markets is uncertainty.
Markets despise uncertainty, and geopolitical shocks, from military tensions to unexpected policy shifts, are a major source of it.
Global Market Volatility
The renewed U.S.-Saudi partnership, for instance, has a direct impact on energy markets. While the promise of stability and massive investment is a positive, any escalation of tensions with Iran, which this alliance is designed to counter, could send oil prices soaring. A spike in oil prices would fuel global inflation, forcing central banks in the West to maintain higher interest rates for longer, which in turn would put a damper on equity markets.
The seizure of a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz is a small-scale preview of how quickly things can escalate, disrupting global trade and supply chains.
Similarly, the political instability in France creates uncertainty at the heart of the Eurozone. A weakened Franco-German axis raises questions about the EU’s ability to handle future economic shocks, potentially weakening the Euro and leading to risk aversion among global investors. The BRICS’ push for de-dollarization is a longer-term structural risk for the U.S.
dollar’s dominance. While not an immediate threat, the steady diversification into gold and other currencies by major central banks could, over time, lead to significant shifts in global capital flows.
The Indian Context: Risks and Opportunities
For India, the current geopolitical climate presents a complex mix of challenges and opportunities. As a major importer of crude oil, India’s economy is highly vulnerable to price shocks emanating from the Middle East. Heightened tensions between the U.S./Saudi Arabia and Iran are a significant risk factor for Indian markets, potentially leading to higher inflation, a wider current account deficit, and a weaker rupee.
Changes in global investor sentiment also have a direct impact. Political instability or a perception of rising risk in emerging markets can lead to outflows of foreign institutional investments (FIIs), which are a key driver of Indian equity markets. The U.S.
Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which is itself influenced by global geopolitical events, is a critical factor. A hawkish Fed can trigger capital outflows from markets like India.
However, the shifting geopolitical landscape also creates openings for India. The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, for example, have accelerated the ‘China plus one’ strategy for many multinational corporations.
This presents a golden opportunity for India to position itself as a credible alternative manufacturing hub. Attracting this investment could lead to significant growth in key sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles. Furthermore, India’s skillful diplomatic navigation, maintaining strong relationships with both the Western bloc and partners within BRICS and the Global South, gives it a unique position of leverage in this increasingly multipolar world.
For investors in India, the key is to remain aware of these global crosscurrents. While short-term volatility is inevitable, India’s long-term growth story remains compelling. Market corrections driven by geopolitical fears can often present attractive buying opportunities for those with a long-term perspective.
A diversified portfolio, with an eye on sectors that could benefit from these global shifts, remains the most prudent strategy for navigating these turbulent times.
